The Polish PV market is expected to grow strongly during the current decade to reach 30 GW of installed capacity by the end of 2030, according to the Polish research institute Instytut Energetyki Odnawialnej (IEO).
The experts also expect the country's cumulative capacity to grow from around 6.3 GW currently to 10 GW by the end of next year, despite an upcoming market contraction in the distributed generation segment.
In 2021, small-sized residential PV systems will account for around 2 GW of the newly deployed capacity. The IEO analysts explained, however, that this year's growth will be mainly due to an end-of-year really, as the current net metering rules and incentives will expire at the end of December. “Starting from 2022, the prosumer market may begin being saturated, and each subsequent year will mean stable development not exceeding half a gigawatt per year,” they said.
The upward trend for the solar sector in Poland will be maintained by the utility-scale segment that, according to the forecast, will equal the installed capacity of the distributed generation segment at the turn of 2023-2024. Furthermore, commercial and industrial self-consumption projects may see an increasing interest by big consumers in the Polish energy landscape and reach a 10% share at the end of 2023.
“The challenge posed by the photovoltaic market is the need to expand the grid and make it more flexible, at all voltage levels,” the IEO report concludes.
In a previous report published in March, the research institute said Poland was on track to reach 14.93 GW of PV capacity by 2025.
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