From pv magazine Germany
The number of hours with negative electricity prices rose across European power markets in the first half of the year. A key driver was favorable weather for solar generation since March, with extended sunshine hours across much of the continent. This led to a surge in negative pricing, particularly in Northern and Central Europe, and increasingly in Southern Europe, during hours when photovoltaic systems were operating at full capacity.
Enervis recorded the highest number of negative-price hours in Spain, with 404, according to the firm’s recently published “Renewables Power Market Report 2025 update.” Almost all other countries also reported new records.
This affected so-called capture prices for PV systems. Enervis found that capture prices declined by 8% across Europe, though regional variation was significant. The drop reached 26% in Southern Europe and 6% in Central Europe, while capture prices in Northern Europe rose by 10%. The capture rate reflects the difference between solar revenue and average market prices on the exchange. Across most European countries, capture rates ranged between roughly 40% and 60% in early 2025.
In Germany, Enervis found that about 28% of potential solar output occurred during periods of negative exchange electricity prices in the first five months of the year. In contrast, only about 7% of onshore wind generation was affected. This marks a sharp rise from the same period in 2024, when 18% of solar generation coincided with negative prices. The report attributes this to expanded solar capacity and concurrent generation. It also raises concerns about the long-term financial viability of merchant solar projects.
Without faster battery storage deployment, more demand-side flexibility, or reform of electricity market structures, this trend will likely continue, said Enervis. Co-located storage may help stabilize revenue for power purchase agreement (PPA) projects. However, current PPA premiums for such systems are often too low to guarantee profitability. Political support may be needed to advance the model.
Germany’s 28% share was surpassed only by Spain (34%) and the Netherlands (30%). In Belgium, 28% of solar output coincided with negative prices. Austria recorded 23%, while Switzerland saw 17%. Greece and the United Kingdom were least affected, with only 1% and 3%, respectively.
Enervis expects a continued rise in negative-price hours in the years ahead. The 2025 update projects this trend for nearly all European countries through 2035. Spain may be an exception, with a potential plateau in the next two years followed by a decline in negative-price hours from 2028. In Germany, Enervis forecasts a peak in 2034 at about 1,300 hours. The 1,000-hour mark is not expected to be surpassed again until 2039.
The report also includes updated forecasts for renewable and battery storage capacity. Enervis projects renewable generation capacity in Europe will grow by 391 GW to around 1,300 GW by 2030. Battery storage installations are expected to increase by about 108 GW over the same period, reaching 175 GW. By 2030, installed capacity of large-scale battery systems is expected to surpass that of residential photovoltaic storage.
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