South Africa adds 1.6 GW of solar in 2025

South Africa deployed 1.6 GW of solar in 2025, according to the Global Solar Council’s Africa market outlook.

The figure is an improvement on the 1.1 GW added in 2024 but down on a record 2.6 GW from 2023. According to analysis from the South African Photovoltaic Industry Association (SAPVIA), cumulative capacity now likely exceeds 10 GW, maintaining the country's position as Africa’s largest solar market.

SAPVIA spokesperson Frank Spencer told pv magazine that while the utility-scale remains the largest segment by installed capacity, and continues to be driven by the country’s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) programme, the commercial and industrial (C&I) market is arguably the strongest-performing relative to fundamentals.

“Key C&I drivers include above-inflation tariff increases (after electricity tariffs increased by 12.74% in April 2025), carbon border adjustment mechanisms, energy cost management and operational continuity requirements,” he explained, before adding that around 100 MW of solar projects between 100 kW and 1 MW and approximately 250 MW of projects between 1 MW and 50 MW have been registered since mid-2024.

In contrast, demand for residential household solar systems has fallen by an estimated 65-80% from a 2023 peak, attributed to a substantial reduction in load shedding. As of December, there were only 26 hours of blackouts in the 2025/26 financial year. “The shift from energy security to economic motivations has slowed residential uptake considerably,” Spencer explained. “However, electricity utility Eskom's 88% increase in fixed charges, introduced from April 2025, and the ongoing above-inflation tariff trajectory are providing renewed economic motivation.”

Spencer said Eskom’s 88% increase in fixed charges created “perverse outcomes for solar customers” as he called for transparent and fair capacity-based charging. “Tariff design must balance Eskom's cost recovery needs with maintaining the economic attractiveness of distributed generation,” he said.

Eskom simplified its small-scale embedded generation (SSEG) registration process in October, removing the requirement for sign-off from the Engineering Council of South Africa, which Spencer said reduced barriers and costs for residential adoption. But he added that wide variation in how municipalities handle SSEG registration, feed-in tariffs and net-metering remains, and suggested a harmonized national framework would unlock the distributed generation market.

Spencer told pv magazine more solar is expected in 2026 than in 2025, with utility-scale solar expected to see a major ramp up as projects from REIPPPP bid window 7 begin to materialize.

Originally launching in December 2023 and seeking to procure 1.8 GW of solar and 3.2 GW of wind, the bid window first announced eight preferred solar bidders in December 2024. An additional six solar projects were approved last July after the reallocation of unused wind capacity and a further four were given the green light in December 2025, taking total solar procurement under the REIPPPP round to 3.94 GW across 18 independent power producers, the largest solar procurement in South Africa’s history. These projects are now moving towards the construction phase, Spencer explained, with commercial close for most expected early this year.

Last year also saw South Africa approve a Renewable Energy Masterplan and publish a new Integrated Resource Plan in November, the latter of which aims for 28.7 GW of new solar by 2039 and is the first of its kind with zero new coal. Spencer said the two documents provide unprecedented policy certainty and target 10.3 GW of new solar by the end of the decade.

Looking ahead, Spencer expects battery storage cost declines will make solar-plus-storage increasingly viable, while Eskom’s new tariff structures with higher fixed charges are also expected to incentivize storage adoption. He also said there is a growing pipeline of corporate power purchase agreements, particularly from mining and data centres.

Spencer cited grid connection constraints, Eskom’s financial challenges, potential delays in achieving commercial closure and the depressing effect of reduced load shedding on residential demand as downside risks. “Grid capacity limitations were the primary reason zero wind projects were awarded in REIPPPP 7, and are increasingly constraining solar development,” Spencer said. “Accelerated transmission investment and streamlined grid connection processes are essential.” 

Spencer also suggested wheeling frameworks should be accelerated, advising this would enable greater C&I and municipal participation in the energy transition, and called for the establishment of the National Transmission Company of South Africa to be fast tracked.

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