EU solar recycling only viable under strict policy, say researchers

Exporting end-of-life solar modules to third countries will remain the cheapest option for EU member states unless binding recycled content and domestic production targets are enforced, according to new TU Wien research.

“Our study identifies the recycling capacity required to meet legally binding targets at minimum cost, which is a relevant and policy-relevant finding,” researcher Sebastian Zwickl-Bernhard told pv magazine. “However, it does not imply that recycling is economically competitive under market conditions.”

“Capacity planning for solar module recycling in the EU: Optimal country-specific strategies and raw material price sensitivities,” published in Solar Energy Materials and Solar Cells, models cost-optimal recycling strategies for crystalline silicon modules across the European Union under three scenarios: a baseline with no policy constraints, an export restrictions scenario based on the EU's WEEE Directive, and a full EU policies scenario incorporating the Net-Zero Industry Act (NZIA) and the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA).

Under the baseline scenario, all scrap is exported. Introducing export restrictions – which limit third-country exports to 15% of collected waste under the WEEE Directive – shifts the dominant treatment option to landfilling rather than recycling. Only when NZIA and CRMA targets are applied does domestic recycling become economically viable.

The cost implications are substantial. System-level scrap treatment costs rise from €27.5 ($32.0) per metric ton in the baseline to €383.50 ($446.30) per metric ton under the full EU policies scenario, reflecting the infrastructure investment required to meet binding recycled content and domestic sourcing targets.

Italy and Germany emerge as the study's pioneer recycling markets, each projected to host five large-scale facilities by 2035 under the EU policies scenario. Spain and France also develop significant capacity, while the Czech Republic only becomes a meaningful recycler under high raw material price scenarios. The analysis finds no small- or medium-sized facilities in the cost-optimal solution – only large-scale plants.

The study identifies temporal stockpiling – storing scrap for later processing rather than immediate treatment – as a key strategy for maintaining facility utilization rates. Scenarios without stockpiling require 38% more landfilling over the modeling horizon, as facilities struggle to absorb irregular scrap inflows.

Even under the most stringent policy scenario, landfilling remains the dominant treatment option through much of the period to 2035, peaking at 62.6% of annual scrap in 2032. The authors find that landfill costs would need to rise to roughly six times current levels before landfilling declines substantially, suggesting that additional fiscal measures such as landfill taxes may be necessary to align outcomes with stated policy objectives.

Silver recovery is identified as the primary economic driver of recycling viability. The model assumes fixed material intensities, which the authors flag as a limitation – declining silver content in newer cell architectures could reduce the recoverable value per metric ton of scrap over time and may cause the study to overestimate recycling's economic attractiveness for modules reaching end-of-life in later periods.

“A time frame of less than five years would allow enough time to ramp up recycling facilities in Europe,” said Zwickl-Bernhard. “The ideal timeframe is determined by factors including scrap availability. If there is insufficient scrap to achieve high utilization rates, it is more beneficial not to recycle. In other words, stockpiles provide flexibility, resulting in higher utilization rates of the facilities and lower costs. Notably, stockpiling also significantly reduces the need for landfilling: scenarios with temporal stockpiles require far less landfilling compared to those without.”

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