BNEF: Electric vehicle sales expanding rapidly, e-buses to dominate by 2030


The global market for EV has been growing and through streamlined production methods, as well as falling costs for batteries, EV’s reach increasingly more competitive prices. Many countries around the world have attractive incentives scheme to speed up this development. BNEF estimates in their latest report that by 2040 EV’s will dominate the global vehicle market, with a share of 55%

Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF, commented: “But the big new feature of this forecast is electric buses. China has led this market in spectacular style, accounting for 99% of the world total last year. The rest of the world will follow, and by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric.”

In 2030, 84% of global municipal bus sales are expected to be electric, resulting from already existing financial cases for the technology. According to BNEF, e-buses have lower operating expenditures (OPEX) than internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. Markets that already have the infrastructure have reached the point at which the total cost of ownership for an e-bus are lower that those of an ICE bus. By the end of 2019, it is forecasted, that this stage is achieved globally, making e-buses the dominant market force as early as 2020.

The EU Commission for example currently runs a programme called ZeEUS to establish best practices in the integration of e-buses in the public transport sector. Across Europe the programme sees differente technologies applied and audits their performance under real world circumstances. The participating municipalities crafted roadmaps for their integration, thus thousands of e-buses are expected to be added to the European read within the next two years.

Oslo's public tranport provider Ruter even came up with a Fossil Free 2020 plan, hoping to replace the entire fleet with e-busses in time. In China there are already well above 300,000 e-buses on the roads, and some municipalities like the 12 milllion citizen  Shenzhen, home city to the electric Bus manufacturer BYD  managed to replace all of its 16,000 buses to e-buses within schedule.

In the year 2030, electric vehicles (EVs) will make up just 7% of new car sales in India, owing to a shortage of charging infrastructure and a lack of affordable models — according to the latest forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). By comparison, it is expected EVs will make up 44% of European light-duty vehicle sales, with figures of 41% for China, 34% in the US and 17% in Japan.

While India lags behind, Bloomberg forecasts the global market will move into top gear in the second half of the 2020s due to tumbling battery costs and larger-scale manufacturing.  It is expected sales of electric cars will surge to 28% worldwide, and electric buses to 84% of their respective global markets by 2030.

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The downbeat figure for India contrasts sharply with a recent prediction by Germany-based TFE Consulting that as many as 40% of new vehicles sold in India — approximately 24 million cars — would be battery powered by 2030.

Bloomberg says EV sales will increase from a record 1.1 million worldwide last year to 11 million in 2025, and will then surge to 30 million in 2030 as they establish a cost advantage over internal combustion engine cars. China will lead the transition according to BNEF, with sales accounting for almost half the global EV market in 2025 and 39% in 2030.

The number of traditional vehicles sold per year – gasoline and diesel-fuelled – is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s as EVs gain market share. In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold, equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market, with shared mobility cars a small but growing element.

BNEF’s projections imply big opportunities for lithium-ion battery manufacturers. China is dominant in the market with a 59% global share of production capacity this year, a figure which is forecast to rise to 73% by 2021.

The standout feature of the EV revolution is demand for electric buses. “China has led this market in spectacular style, accounting for 99% of the world total last year,” says Colin McKerracher, lead analyst on advanced transportation for BNEF. “The rest of the world will follow, and by 2040 we expect 80% of the global municipal bus fleet to be electric.”

The transition to electric transport will have major implications for electricity demand as well as the oil market. It is anticipated EVs and e-buses will use 2000 TWh in 2040, adding 6% to global electricity demand. At the same time, the switch from combustion engines to electric vehicles is expected to displace 7.3 million barrels a day of transport fuel.

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