From pv magazine Germany
Anyone in Germany who wants to put a small-scale PV system into operation in November 2021 must expect electricity generation costs of €0.1152 ($0.13)/kWh and a feed-in tariff (FIT) of €0.0703/kWh.
The combination of high PV system prices and falling FITs could extend the payback period for new residential projects to up to 22 years by as early as 2023, according to EUPD Research. In a recently published report, it studied the potential impact on the German market and made a short-term growth forecast up to 2023.
It said that residential projects up to 10 kW in size will only be viable through the highest possible self-consumption rate. It said that it expects the installation of significantly smaller systems.
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EUPD Research also said that a one-time increase in the FITs should be promptly introduced to compensate for the high subsidy degression of the past few months. And a looming short-term market slump must be prevented via reforms for the FIT degression mechanism.
In addition, further measures will be needed to strengthen the German PV market, such as raising the tender limit for rooftop PV systems, expanding the tax-free self-consumption of solar power, removing bureaucratic barriers, and establishing long-term planning security for system operators.
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Lets be frankly, in Germany nobody install PV for getting money from FIT. Main goal – to decrease household’s electricity bills. So if we compare PV gereration price of 11cents and grid price of 30cents it will be totally another picture with payback.
A better way is to increase CO2 levy on electricity generation making PV electricity comparatively more attractive.
Was this article really written without mentioning battery storage? With retail rates at $.30/kWh, logical Germans will turn to storage rather that the FIT. They’ll aggregate usage and flip the market to sell at peak and make a killing.
I feel like this research was done from a very American perspective, as if utilities have all the power in Germany. They don’t. This next phase will be done with equal elegance to the German singlehanded scaling of the global solar market the last 20 years.
What are the current prices, and what where they in 2020 in kWp?
Asking from abroad.