Between 1.2 GW and 1.4 GW of solar was deployed in Sweden in 2023, according to estimates published by Svensk Solenergi, the Swedish solar energy association. About 1 GW was deployed in 2022.
In 2023, around 96,000 solar cell installations were connected to the Swedish electricity grid, up roughly 70% from the 55,000 installed in 2022. Svensk Solenergi said activity peaked in the second quarter of 2023, after which installations fell due to high interest rates and inflation.
The association predicts 65,000 solar cell installations this year, down 32% year on year. Svensk Solenergi said the negative forecast is driven by a weaker economy and increased uncertainty among customers, as well as a smaller number of pre-notifications submitted to grid companies. In 2023, there were 84,000 pre-notifications, compared to 95,000 pre-notifications in 2022.
“An important reason for the decline is increased interest rates and falling real wages, which dampen demand. The fact that electricity prices have decreased compared to 2022 also affects the willingness to invest,” said Anna Werner, the CEO of Svensk Solenergi. “The Swedish Tax Agency's stance on green tax deductions for batteries has also contributed to increased uncertainty among consumers, which has infected the solar cell market. It's unfortunate.”
Svensk Solenergi expects between 1 GW to 1.3 GW of new solar power in 2024.
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“There is a lot of interest in building utility solar in Sweden. Many different players want to get into the market and the number of announced and unannounced projects are long,” said Svensk Solenergi Technical Manager Oskar Öhrman.
He noted that around 360 projects with a combined total power of 11 GW are waiting on permit decisions in Sweden. “The possibility to get a grid connection to an acceptable price is the most important bottleneck and where a lot of projects will fail,” he added.
In October, construction began on Sweden’s largest solar farm to date. Öhrman said the 100 MW PV project will likely be commissioned this year.
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