Massive amounts of vertical PV may reshape European energy market

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An international research team has investigated the impact of deploying bifacial vertical agrivoltaics on a large-scale disruptive scenario in the European energy market and has found that east-west oriented vertical PV panels could play a significant role in achieving a more balanced and more integrated continental power system by 2040.

The scientists found, in particular, that the perspective of a larger penetration of vertical PV systems, mainly of commercial and industrial size, may lead to several major improvements such as increasing solar power shares and value, reducing base-load electricity prices, and enhancing energy exchange between neighboring countries.

The group explained that east-west oriented vertical PV extends the generation time of a solar array to dawn and sunset, which are periods when it is more valuable to the consumers. “Such setup typically produces 30% in the 3 midday hours in contrast to the south facing PV that produce nearly 70% of its output in the midday,” it emphasized. “Favouring vertical bifacial systems reduces peak PV production, and ensures a production profile that covers a larger number of hours, which helps solar-based production maintain higher market value.”

The analysis was based on the European Power Market Model (EPMM), which is a multi-market sectoral equilibrium model that simulates the European electricity wholesale markets and analyses the impact of policies on the European markets. It covers the 27 countries adhering to the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (Entso-E).

The modeling considered minimized electricity demand costs, start-up and shut-down costs, production costs, and renewable energy curtailment. It covered both conventional and renewable generation and, as well as energy storage. “The primary model objective is to satisfy the electricity consumption needs at the lowest system cost, considering the characteristics of available power plants and cross-border transmission capacities in the European power system,” the group stated.

In the five proposed sensitivity scenarios analyzed by modeling, solar PV is expected to reach a capacity ranging from 649 GW to 1,178 GW from around 240 GW currently. In the base case, however, no investments in vertical bifacial PV were assumed, while in the best-case scenario vertical PV is expected to reach a remarkable 50% share.

“The model output clearly shows an increase in solar generation by 2% and 3.6% in 2030 and 2040, respectively,” the researchers explained. “This increase exceeds 5.3% in the high PV scenario, clearly showing the potential of the vertical system. Notably, a substantial increase in the electricity injected into the grid is evident with higher vertical PV utilization, primarily replacing gas and nuclear generation.”

The analysis also showed more vertical PV may lead to substantially lower power prices, due in part to lower system costs, reduced curtailment and the replacement of expensive conventional power generation assets.

“Over the longer term, the European power system becomes more sustainable both economically and environmentally,” the scientists concluded. “The future system is characterized by lower CO2 emissions, and reduced reliance on imported fossil fuels, and it will be more sustainable in economic terms as well, characterized by reducing total system cost and decreasing wholesale electricity prices.”

Their findings are available in the study “Impacts of large-scale deployment of vertical bifacial photovoltaics on European electricity market dynamics,” which was recently published in nature communications. The research group included academics from Hungary's Regional Centre for Energy Policy Research, the University of California – Berkeley, the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission, Greek consultancy Elpedison SA, and software provider European Dynamics Luxembourg SA.

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