Australia rooftop solar volumes fall 32% after four-month rebound

Rooftop solar installations in Australia declined sharply in January, with small-scale technology certificate (STC) volumes down 32% month on month after four consecutive months of growth, according to market analyst SunWiz. It says the result was broadly in line with seasonal norms and does not signal a trend for 2026.
Image: SunWiz

From pv magazine Australia

Installed rooftop solar capacity in December 2025 totaled 224 MW, comparable with outcomes in recent years. However, SunWiz cautioned against extrapolating December volumes into the year ahead.

Average system sizes also fell, reversing a four-month increase. The average dropped from more than 11.5 kW in December to 10.83 kW in January, reflecting a sharper contraction in larger systems.

By size segment, the 50 kW to 70 kW category recorded the steepest decline, down 57%. Smaller residential systems fell by 24%, contributing to the overall reduction in average system size.

All states and territories recorded month-on-month declines. Victoria proved the most resilient, down 19%, followed by Western Australia at 22% and the Australian Capital Territory at 34%. Queensland fell 35%, South Australia and New South Wales each declined 37%, Tasmania dropped 38%, and the Northern Territory contracted by 69%, although average system sizes there remained elevated.

SunWiz said capacity eased most noticeably in the mid-range segments, with installations in the 10 kW to 15 kW band falling to 82 MW and the 8 kW to 10 kW range sliding to 23 MW. Installations in the 6 kW to 8 kW segment were unchanged at 37 MW, while the top three rankings by segment remained stable month on month.

Written by

Comments

Nigel
Feb 06, 2026

It’s just the summer holidays!