Surface solar radiation across Europe is increasing due to changing cloud patterns and reduce air pollution, according to the findings of new research.
The research, a collaboration between solar data and software company Solargis, the University of Malaga and University of Murcia, is said to be one of the most comprehensive solar radiation studies carried out in Europe to date, having analysed surface solar radiation data from the past 30 years and next 30 years.
The findings are presented in the research paper “Past, current and future solar radiation trends in Europe: Multi-source assessment of the role of clouds and aerosols,” available in the journal Remote Sensing of Environment. The data set comprises ground site observations, five historical gridded datasets and an ensemble of 30 CMIP6 climate models with projections in four different forcing scenarios.
The researchers found the amount of sunlight reaching Europe's surface increased by an average 4.8% over the last 30 years, equivalent to an additional 2.4 W per decade between 1994 and 2023. Central-western Europe has experienced greater growth than other parts of Europe, with northeastern France, the Benelux and western Germany recording an increase of nearly 11% between 1994 to 2023, or 4.7 Watts per decade. The research paper adds that the upward trend in irradiance is at a lower levels in other areas including Great Britain, Scandinavia, the Italian Peninsula and the Balkans.
Initial commentary on the findings says changes in cloud opacity and coverage account for around 80% of the total increase in solar radiation, with the reduction in aerosol pollution levels, otherwise known as the aerosol direct effect (ADE), accounting for the remaining 20%.
Further analysis in the research paper adds that the indirect role of aerosols, or first aerosol indirect effect (AIE), is pivotal to determining cloud opacity, and therefore increases the importance of aerosol pollution beyond the initial 20%. The research paper’s conclusion attributes 1/5 of impact to ADE, 2/5 to first AIE and 2/5 to cloud cover changes. “That is, the cloud-related changes would be twice as much important as ADE at the regional scale,” the paper explains.
An analysis of forecasting data of solar radiation covering 2024 to 2054 indicated the increase in solar irradiance in Europe will slow in the next three decades. Lead researcher José Antonio Ruiz-Arias, a professor at the University of Malaga, says this finding is consistent with the result from climate models.
“Despite the scientific community’s efforts to predict surface solar radiation levels accurately, long-term solar radiation projections carry a high degree of uncertainty because of the complexities surrounding the atmosphere’s non-linear behavior and our limited knowledge of aerosol levels and their interactions in the atmosphere,” Ruiz-Arias said. “It is therefore important for the global solar community to continue improving existing datasets, closely monitoring atmospheric changes and re-evaluating how solar radiance impacts us locally on the ground.”
Ruiz-Arias added that changing irradiance levels impact the solar industry greatly, with a direct influence on long-term production, sustainability and bankability of projects.
“Beyond the energy sector, a brighter Europe translates into more energy, rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns,” Ruiz-Arias said. “These factors have broad impacts on societal patterns and almost all economic sectors, from farming and tourism to education.”
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