Lux Research expects a healthy and profitable return of solar industry


In the report, issued by Lux Research’s Solar System Intelligence and Solar Components Intelligence teams, the analysts note that the whole industry is on the way to a prompt recovery and a number of early movers have already made strategic moves into key areas like “system deployment or balance of systems technologies” for the resurgence.

The total module capacity will be brought down to 58 GW in two years’ time, thanks to the bankruptcies of “uncompetitive players” and a healthy capacity expansion carried out under financial constraints. The growth of emerging markets like China will raise the global demand from 31 GW in 2012 to 52 GW in 2015. Meanwhile, the module glut will be reduced from 100% in 2012 to 12%.

The report also reveals that companies like BASF and Johnson Controls have already got themselves prepared for the coming pickup by “leveraging existing technologies or market platforms”. ABB’s purchase of Power-One was also given as an example for the growing interest in acquisitions. Lux Research highlights that due to the increased number of partnerships and acquisitions, the cost of entry will be driven up.

Commenting on the future moves of the stakeholders, the report says the surviving stakeholders will invest in technologies to ensure efficient production and the long-term health of the companies. The fields of investment will include the advanced crystalline silicon cell technologies, “hybrid photovoltaic/thermal cogeneration systems” and the coating technologies for high class modules.