IHS Markit raises 2017 global installations forecast

IHS Markit has made an upward revision to its PV installations forecast for 2017, and now expects 90 GW of new PV to be installed worldwide before the end of the year, 14% higher than 2016 installations, and significantly above the previous IHS forecast of 79 GW.

“The biggest changes are seen in China,” states an IHS Markit special report announcing the upward revision. “Positive revisions to policy support, a larger than previously expected first half of the year, and strong installations activity continuing into Q3 have moved IHS Markit to raise its forecast for installations in the country to 45 GW in 2017.”

The analysts, along with many others in the industry, had previously expected installations in China to peak in Q2 before declining in Q3. However, data released this week by the China Electric Council shows that high installations continued into Q3, with 11.3 GW installed in July alone.

The continuing boom in China may not be such good news for other regions, and the IHS report notes that projects are being delayed in regions such as Japan, India and Latin America due to shortage of modules. “The latest installation forecast implies that the PV module supply chain is at the very upper end of what it can produce within a year,” states the report. As a result of this, IHS has reduced its forecast for global installations excluding China by 7 GW.

The report also notes that outlook for module suppliers in the United States is strong, as the current rush to procure modules ahead of the decision on the Suniva petition has driven prices up, and is focused on modules manufactured outside of Taiwan and China thanks to trade tariffs. “It is an attractive market for suppliers,” states the IHS Markit report, “who are prioritizing supplying modules here over other markets.”