Researchers have warned the roll-out of solar power across the EU could be derailed by a shortage of raw materials such as germanium, tellurium, gallium, indium, selenium, silicon and glass.
The EU’s attempt to wean itself off fossil fuels by 2050 will require mountains of raw materials for the construction of solar and wind projects and the trading bloc has published a report which attempts to assess material requirements and demand scenarios.
The authors of the report – which considers supply chain threats, as the majority of raw materials must be imported to Europe – consulted the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate change targets as the basis for modeling the volume of renewable generation capacity required. The researchers then factored in demand from elsewhere around the world for the same raw materials, based on various renewable energy deployment scenarios, and added in the market share of different PV technologies, which require different raw materials. Finally, the effect of R&D reducing the need for raw material volume was also considered.
Using all those variables, the report’s authors devised three clean energy raw material demand scenarios for the bloc.
Demand
The most optimistic outlook for solar would involve a net decrease in raw material demand, with technological advances balancing more widespread deployment.
The medium demand scenario envisages materials demand rising between threefold and eightfold but the high demand scenario paints a different picture. Under the latter model, silver demand would rise fourfold and silicon by a factor of 12 by 2050.
Of more concern would be a projected 40-fold rise in demand for cadmium, gallium, indium, selenium and tellurium. Germanium demand, too, could go through the roof, with an anticipated 86-fold rise on the volume imported in 2018.
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Structural materials such as concrete, steel and aluminum could rise by a factor of eight by 2030 and 30 by 2050 under the high demand scenario, according to the report. The PV industry currently consumes 60.7 tons of concrete per megawatt of generation capacity installed. Steel demand was estimated at 67.9t/MW; plastic 8.6 tons; glass 46.4; aluminum 7.5; and copper 4.6 tons per megawatt in 2018. For those materials, only minor material requirement reductions were projected by the report’s authors. By 2050, the study anticipated demand for those materials could sit at 80%, 90% or 100% of 2018 levels, depending on the demand scenario.
Innovation
The ability of innovation to reduce raw material demand was considered an essential factor by the report’s authors. The study noted the material intensity of silicon in c-Si panels dropped significantly in the last decade. In 2004, 16g of silicon was necessary per Watt of panel power rating but the figure had fallen to 4g by 2018 and the European Commission’s Joint Research Center expects the figure to fall to 2.1-3 g by 2028.
“Although the degree of uncertainty surrounding assumption of future performance is inherently high, capturing the benefits of innovations that may be able to reduce the number of materials used in a particular technology per unit of service delivered is indispensable,” the report stated.
In that vein, the researchers said germanium, tellurium, gallium, selenium, silicon, glass and indium could be in short supply in a high-demand scenario, with the requirement for some of those elements outstripping current global supply levels.
That means, the report warned, the energy transition in the EU could be endangered by supply chain weaknesses, with wind power requirements of rare earth metals, neodymium and other permanent magnet materials exacerbating the situation.
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How can we possibly run out of silicon and glass? Also: no comparison with the raw material requirements of the competing fossil-heavy scenarios.
A link to the report would be nice.
Cadmium, gallium, indium, selenium and tellurium are only used in some specific types of thin film modules (CdTe, CIS,..). These make out only a very small part of the market. So if these materials run out, or before that become to expensive, they are just driven out of the market and replaced by other PV technologies like good old silicon.
It is a standard trick of renewable energy opponents to do a bait and switch between niche pv technologies and mainstream silicon. technology. I would expect a specialised magazine not to fall for that.
Hi Hans,
Thanks for your comment. pv magazine is reporting here on the findings of a group tasked by the European Commission with looking into the issue so it may be better to direct accusations of being duped to the commission.
Thanks for engaging with our content Hans.
Here a link to the original report :
https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/publication/raw-materials-demand-wind-and-solar-pv-technologies-transition-towards-decarbonised-energy-system
I take accusations of having fallen for “standard tricks of renewable energy opponents” very seriously. The report accurately mentions that the materials you mentioned are used in thin-film technologies, which comprise only about 2-4% market share. I could have added a note to that effect, but since the JRC identified similar resource supply chain risks for c-Si with PV grade silicon itself, silver, copper, and glass, as I mentioned in the article, it wouldn’t have changed much. The JRC identified potential shortcomings for all thin-film and crystalline silicon technologies alike.
By the way, neither I nor the JRC suggests that the findings should inform a fossil fuel-based trajectory for Europe’s energy supply, but puts on the table considerations for effective end-of-life treatment. Recycling of modules remains a big challenge. With the supply chain risks stacked on top of environmental concerns, more might be done. Since I wrote that article in April, the EU Commission has moved to formulate a critical resource strategy aiming to improve recycling practices. This strategy also includes silicon.
Hi Marian and Max,
My reactions was probably a bit to accusative. Too often I have discussions with climate deniers and other renewable energy opponents that do this bait and switch between niche technologies using rare materials and mainstream silicon technology. It is a dishonoust and harmful argument against the use of PV, endlessly echoed on the internet. For example the infamous Shellenberger, once nuclear power lobbyist now turned climate denier, often uses this trick.
The fragment I was reacting to was this:
“Of more concern would be a projected 40-fold rise in demand for cadmium, gallium, indium, selenium and tellurium. Germanium demand, too, could go through the roof, with an anticipated 86-fold rise on the volume imported in 2018.”
It is not made clear in the article that these are only necessary some PV technologies, not for all technologies. A layman reading the article could be easily misled by this and think these materials are necessary for all PV panels, so that a shortage in these materials would seriously cripple the energy transition. So I will rephrase my accusation to a friendly request: “Can you adjust the article such that it is made clear that these materials are only needed for specific types of PV panels, and shortages in these materials thus do not mean a hindrance to the implementation of the overall PV technology ?”
Thanks!