Analysts predict 337 MW of new solar in Belgium for H1

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Approximately 337 MW of solar energy has deployed in Belgium in the first half of 2024, according to the Becquerel Institute, a Brussels-based consultancy.

The energy regulator in Brussels indicates that the capital recorded 7 MW of solar installations in the first half, down from 23.6 MW for all of 2023. Analysts told pv magazine that, while the residential segment (<5 kVA) remains stable, the small and medium segment (5-100 kVA) has slowed.

In Wallonia, the Becquerel Institute said that about 100 MW of solar was installed in the first half – a decline from last year’s “exceptional” figures. It attributed this to the phasing out of net metering and the end of value-added tax (VAT) reductions for newer buildings.

Earlier this month, pv magazine reported that Flanders added 230 MW of solar in the first half, holding the majority of the country’s solar capacity. The Becquerel Institute said that residential installations, which make up 50% to 80% of Flanders’ annual solar capacity, have slowed due to reduced investment support and VAT changes. However, the 10-40 kVA, 40-250 kVA, 250-750 kVA, and >750 kVA segments in Flanders have either held steady or improved compared to early 2023.

The Becquerel Institute forecasts that Belgium will install around 900 MW of solar this year, with 650 MW to 700 MW expected from Flanders, 15-20 MW from Brussels, and 200 MW to 250 MW from Wallonia. This would be only half of last year's record 1.8 GW, but analysts view last year’s figures as “exceptional” and not indicative of ongoing trends.

In 2023, Belgium updated its National Climate Action Plan, setting new solar targets of 8.9 GWp for Flanders, 5 GWp for Wallonia, and 1 GW of floating solar by 2030. The IEA-PVPS annual report for 2023, as noted by contributing author Gerrit Jan Schaeffer, confirms that Belgium will likely meet its targets and could even reach 20 GWp to 22 GWp by 2030.

The IEA-PVPS also said that ELIA, Belgium’s transmission system operator, measured PV contributions at 9.7% of the electricity mix in 2023, up from 7.3% in 2022.

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