UK grid operator calls for 47 GW of solar by 2030, deployed at 4.6 GW per year

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Solar capacity in Great Britain should triple by 2030 to meet net zero targets, according to new advice to the UK government from the National Energy System Operator (NESO). Published on Nov. 5, 2024, the Clean Power in 2030 report lists 47 GW of deployed solar capacity by 2030 as one of the key features of a carbon-free grid. The latest capacity figures published by the government record 17.1 GW as of Sept. 31, 2024.

The UK government has committed to decarbonizing Great Britain’s electricity grid by 2030 and in August 2024 it tasked the electricity system operator with providing “practical advice” on how to proceed. In response, NESO has set out a raft of recommendations on how to decarbonize the grid on the government’s timescale. The advice on solar includes a threefold increase in annual capacity additions, with NESO suggesting 4.6 GW could be deployed each year from 2025 to hit clean energy targets.

NESO’s recommendations also include adding at least 18 GW more rated capacity to Great Britain's battery energy storage system (BESS) fleet by 2030. The system operator’s analysis sees BESS rated capacity increase from 5 GW in 2023 to 23 GW to 27 GW in 2030. Long-duration energy storage was also described as key, potentially doubling by 2030, from 3 GW in 2023 to 5 GW to 8 GW.

In total, NESO reckons achieving a clean power system in 2030 will require installed generation and storage capacity of around 210 GW to 220 GW from a diverse mix of technologies. Offshore wind will be the “bedrock” of Great Britain's clean power system, according to NESO, but with solar and onshore wind combined accounting for 29% of generation.

Grid connection reform was also singled out by NESO in its advice to the government. The grid operator has published a new consultation with proposals on speeding up connections at transmission level, and for generation and storage projects connecting to the distribution networks that also impact transmission. It proposes criteria and processes for reducing and reordering Great Britain’s grid connection queue, shifting from a “first come, first served” approach to one which prioritizes projects based on project readiness, as well as the locational and technical needs of the grid.

On flexibility, NESO claims growth in demand flexibility and flexibility markets is needed. In July 2024, the Energy Networks Association (ENA) revealed network operators tendered a record 6.4 GW of capacity on Great Britain’s local flexibility markets in 2023, with 4 GW contracted – a world record according to the association. NESO’s pathways to 2030 imagine further progress. The gird operator also envisages demand flexibility of 10 GW to 12 GW by 2030, driven by the adoption of smart electric vehicle charging, time-shifting household demand, and more responsive industrial demand.

The grid operator’s analysis concludes that the government’s goal of clean power by 2030 is a “huge challenge” but achievable in Great Britain by 2030. It finds overall system costs should not increase and that measures such as energy efficiency improvements could lead to reduced electricity bills for consumers.

Other critical steps set out by NESO include securing a “radical reduction” in the time it takes to achieve planning consent in Great Britain, increased digitalization, and reform of investment support schemes.

The UK government is now expected to consider NESO's advice ahead of publishing its own clean power plan later in 2024.

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