With emerging markets classed as countries with less than 1 GW of PV at present predicted to account for 19% of global solar installations by 2017, market research company IHS says Thailand will lead the way with 2.9 GW installed.
An analysis of 40 countries classed as emerging markets by IHS shows the Thai government’s popular adder incentive scheme will lead the way among emerging solar markets and will help drive installations in the Asia Pacific region, along with South Korea, which IHS predicts will install 2.6 GW.
The lure of Latin America is demonstrated by the fact IHS is charting a 12 GW pipeline for the region and says 21 of the biggest 30 solar players operating in emerging markets are doing so in central and South America.
Chile, placed sixth, is the highest Latin American market in the IHS table, with a predicted 2.2 GW installed by 2017 a figure IHS says could be considerably higher but for restricted grid access. Brazil, placed eighth with 2 GW installed, and Mexico, will also figure prominently.
Europe has a solar future
In its Emerging Solar PV Markets Tracker report, IHS says European nations too will have a role to play as emerging markets rise in influence from a current 7% of global installations, thanks mainly to their proximity to established solar companies.
Turkey is expected to be the poster boy of Europe with 2.8 GW of installations despite the delay in implementing a recent 600 MW tender by the Turkish government until late 2014 onwards thanks to a massive oversubscription of the scheme.
The Ukraine, placed fifth in the IHS table with a predicted 2.2 GW installed by 2017, and Romania, already have fast-growing solar markets and it is expected Poland and Russia will join them whilst the Netherlands (seventh in the table with 2.2 GW predicted), Switzerland (tenth, 1.6 GW) and Denmark, will continue to be driven by rooftop demand. Of Turkey’s impressive prospects, IHS predicts its rooftop market will reach 300 MW next year and 1 GW by 2017.
South Africa is expected to be the workhorse of the Middle East and Africa, with a predicted 2.6 GW installed by 2017, the fourth highest figure in the IHS table, supported by Israel (ninth, 1.8 GW) and Saudi Arabia.