Norway to nearly triple annual PV additions in 2022, says research firm

Norway could potentially add 150 MW of new solar capacity in 2022, according to data from Germany-based EUPD Research. The country added 54.5 MW of solar in 2021, according to official figures published by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE).

“This almost threefold increase in 2022 is mainly because of the increasing electricity prices and also the fact that there were several large solar systems that were installed in 2021, but which were not put into operation until after the New Year,” Ali Arfa, data manager at EUPD Research, told pv magazine.

Arfa noted that rising PV system efficiency, growing social acceptance of solar, and regulatory changes for new zero-emissions buildings will also contribute to the full-year total. EUPD Research expects the large-scale solar market to install 61 MW in 2022, followed by the commercial segment with 48 MW, and the residential sector with 36.4 MW. The research firm categorizes installations above 500 kW in size as “large scale,” arrays between 10 kW and 500 kW as “commercial,” and up to 10 kW as “residential.”

NVE and the Norwegian energy industry's common data hub, Elhub, use different criteria. According to ElHub, 102 MW of capacity had been installed in Norway by the end of September. PV systems on single-family homes contributed 30 MW, ground-mounted systems accounted for just 1 MW, and PV systems on commercial buildings came in at 71 MW.

“The estimation is that toward the rest of the year, another 40 MW to 50 MW of PV will be commissioned,” said Arfa.

With this year's new additions, Norway's cumulative solar capacity is set to reach 354.5 MW by the end of December. Between 2023 and 2026, the country could add 285 MW of residential capacity, 360 MW of commercial arrays, and 640 MW of large-scale projects, according to EUPD Research. The country could potentially reach 1.6 GW of cumulative PV capacity by the end of 2026 and add 500 MW of capacity every year thereafter until 2030, to hit 3.6 GW by the end of the decade.