IHS Markit analysts expect double-digit growth in the European PV market this year. They also believe that solar demand in Europe will rise from approximately 9 GW in 2017, to about 11 GW in 2018.
Last year, the European solar market grew by 23% compared to 2016. This year’s expected growth will be recorded largely in the handful of countries that offer a favorable regulatory environment, boosted by the decline of module prices over the past few years, which has led to a pickup in demand, the analysts stressed.
According to IHS Markit, the five largest European PV markets in 2017 were Turkey, Germany, France, the Netherlands and the U.K. Two-thirds of last year’s new additions were installed in these five countries.
As for this year, the analysts forecast that a similar level of growth will reach more countries, including Spain, where a solar renaissance is expected.
The Spanish market is predicted to become Europe’s fifth-largest PV market in 2018, while the leading markets will be Germany, Turkey and France, IHS analyst, Susanne von Aichberger tells pv magazine.
The analysts further predict that large PV systems will account for about one-third of total year-to-year growth in Europe. Most projects will be subsidized by tenders. In Turkey, there are also feed-in tariffs for these power plants.
The remaining two-thirds of the growth is expected to come from private and commercial PV roof systems. The demand for these systems is driven not only by state subsidies, but also by the profitable self-consumption model, according to the analysts.
IHS Markit will publish a detailed preview of the European PV market with final figures as well as further information on the development of the global market on Friday with its report “PV Installation Tracker Q1 2018”.