Some of Nigeria’s most populous states could meet future solar demand by utilizing less than 1% of existing cropland for agrivoltaics, according to new research.
Researchers based at the University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, Indiana University and Cornell University in the United States have carried out a national assessment of agrivoltaic suitability and land-use implications across Nigeria. Their findings are presented in the research paper “Geospatial assessment of agrivoltaic opportunities and land use requirements in Nigeria,” available in the journal Scientific Reports.
The team first mapped the land area covered by croplands in Nigeria, then assessed solar energy potential within the croplands using a raster dataset from the Global Solar Atlas. They also computed the aridity index of the areas, explaining in the research paper that the benefits of agrivoltaics tend to be higher in drier regions.
This work allowed the team to create a composite suitability index based on cropland extent, average solar output potential and average aridity index, in order to identify promising sites for agrivoltaics. They also calculated the land area that agrivoltaics would require to meet projected 2050 solar capacity additions in each state of Nigeria.
Rafael M. Almedia, assistant professor at Indiana University and corresponding author of the research paper, told pv magazine that while Nigeria has a major opportunity for agrivoltaics, the opportunity is not spread evenly across the country.
Results from in the research paper highlight Nigeria’s northern states, with abundant and water-stressed cropland, high solar irradiance and low electricity access rates, as areas with the greatest potential for agrivoltaic systems to generate co-benefits. “That overlap matters because in hot, water-stressed regions, partial shading from solar panels can often reduce heat and evaporation stress on crops,” Almedia explained.
Southern Nigeria, including the area home to the country’s capital, Lagos, exhibited lower suitability for agrivoltaics, which the research paper attributes to its humid forest covering, weaker solar potential and comparatively sparse cropland.
Almedia added that in the northern states of Kano and Katsina, two of Nigeria’s three most populous states, results suggested that future solar demand could be met using less than 1% of existing cropland for agrivoltaics. In contrast, southern states of Nigeria would require much larger fractions of existing cropland, of between 5.9% to 18.9%, to agrivoltaics in order to fully meet projected 2050 solar energy targets.
“That is striking, especially because northern states are generally more energy poor, and many of these same high-potential areas still lack reliable electricity,” Almedia explained. “Agrivoltaics could therefore be especially valuable not just as a land-saving solar strategy, but as a decentralized energy option for communities that are currently underserved.”
Almedia said the research findings could help researchers, developers, and decision-makers identify promising areas for pilot projects and more detailed feasibility studies.
“The next step is to combine this spatial analysis with local information on crops, land tenure, farmer needs, grid access, water availability and project economics,” he told pv magazine. “Field studies to verify how locally relevant crops respond to agrivoltaic systems would also be important, as relying on models developed for different climates and soil types may not translate perfectly to Nigerian conditions.”
The research paper adds that decentralized solar is expected to play a major role in Nigeria’s expanding renewables sector, pointing to the International Renewable Energy Agency’s (IRENA) estimates that off-grid solar could add an additional 75 GW to Nigeria’s power sector by 2050. It also says agrivoltaics could foster community ownership of energy systems in Nigeria, promote rural development and support progress toward multiple sustainable development goals.
Almedia suggested agrivoltaics expansion in Nigeria could benefit from demonstration projects on working farms, incentives that reduce upfront costs for farmers and rural communities, and policies that recognize agrivoltaics as both an energy and agricultural strategy. “It will also be important to connect solar developers with farmers and local communities early, so projects respond to local needs and deliver benefits beyond electricity generation,” he concluded.
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