Solar capture factors are declining in some of Europe’s major electricity markets, according the latest analysis by Swiss renewables research firm Pexapark.
Analysis of solar capture rates in April 2025 and April 2026 highlighted decreases across France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain. Pexapark also found an increase in the proportion of solar production under negative price hours at the same time.
Pexapark analyst David Battista notes the trend occurred despite broader volatility in commodity markets linked to the Iran conflict. He said this suggests that solar capture factors remain primarily driven by structural oversupply dynamics within Europe rather than fuel or geopolitical movements.
The largest drop in solar capture factors was observed in France, which fell to around 0.10 in April 2026 compared to around 0.42 in April 2025 for a 75% year-on-year decline. Negative price hours rose from 90 to 139, while the proportion of solar generated during negative price events increased from 29.2% in April 2025 to 45.1% in April 2026.
Mild temperatures, weakened demand over holiday periods and improved nuclear availability also played a role in the collapse of solar capture factors. “With neighboring markets also experiencing similar solar surpluses, export opportunities were limited, leading to more frequent domestic oversupply conditions and deeper price collapses during peak solar production hours,” Battista wrote, adding that the market conditions support France’s preposed reform of large-scale solar contracts for difference.
In Germany, capture factors fell from 0.40 in April 2025 to approximately 0.26 in April 2026, a decline of around a third, while negative price hours from 75 to 123 and the share of solar generation produced during negative price periods rose from 32.6% in April 2025 to 46.8% in April 2026.
Spain’s solar capture rate last fell from 0.30 in April 2025 to 0.28 in April 2026, but Pexapark noted a more pronounced fall earlier in the year. Capture factors dropped to around 0.18 in February 2026, compared to 0.71 in February 2025, attributed to exceptionally strong hydro output.
There were 148 negative price hours in Spain last February, compared to zero in the February the year prior, which Battista says indicates that oversupply conditions are now emerging even in winter months. “Spain’s rapidly expanding solar fleet, combined with limited storage and constrained export capacity during periods of regional oversupply, is increasingly exposing solar assets to both seasonal and structural price pressure,” he explained.
In Italy, home to some of the highest electricity prices in Europe, solar capture factors fell from 0.75 in April 2025 to around 0.71 in April 2026, which Pexapark’s analysis finds is the second lowest level on record. Battista writes that this decline is notable given Italy’s still relatively lower solar penetration compared to Germany and Spain. He adds that Northern Italy remains largely unaffected, while last month saw the emergence of zero-price hours across central and southern zones of the country.
Pexapark’s analysis finishes with Poland, which saw capture prices decline from around 0.54 in April 2025 to approximately 0.40 in April 2026, while negative price hours increased from 75 to 87 and the share of solar output generated during negative price periods rose from 27.1% to 28.5%.
Battista said the data shows that oversupply pressures are emerging in Poland, but its coal-heavy generation mix and comparatively lower solar buildout have so far helped maintain higher capture factors than in more saturated Western European markets. “However, increasing solar deployment and stronger integration with neighbouring markets suggest that similar pressures could intensify over time, particularly during low-demand periods,” he added.
Pexapark says early data from May has reinforced the trend observed in April, with several markets recording record or near-record negative pricing events and further deterioration in solar capture economics.
“The April 2026 data suggests European solar markets may be entering a new phase where periods of severe midday oversupply are no longer isolated events but recurring structural conditions, particularly in shoulder months,” Battista wrote. “In Germany and France in particular, prolonged negative-price periods are becoming increasingly common, raising the prospect that 2026 could set new lows for solar capture factors across parts of Europe if current buildout trends continue.”
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