A new climate modeling tool developed by the co-founder of Sydney-based software company OpenSolar forecasts a seismic shift in global energy patterns, predicting that solar will account for more than half of the world’s energy production by 2035.
Andrew Birch, co-founder and chief executive officer of solar software provider OpenSolar, said the newly launched S-Curve model reveals that a clean energy transition is inevitable with solar set to lead the way.
The S-Curve model projects forward solar’s historical trends, predicting that the technology costs will continue to fall by 10% a year while its deployment will grow at 25% a year. This will see solar energy eclipse nuclear power this year, eclipse oil by 2031, and deliver more than half the world’s energy by 2035 in a classic S-curve technology shift.
“On current growth trends, solar is on track to displace 50% of traditional energy supply within a decade, this should scare you if you’re still financing coal, oil or gas,” Birch said, adding that the forecast is simply the mathematical outcome of solar’s continued growth “which is just kicking in.”
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And in 2050, the “Other” 50% will not be BigOil&Gas. Most of it’ll be massive offshore wind with just enough higher cost dispatchable hydro, geothermal, nuclear, batteries & stored green aviation fuel & ammonia to complete the mix.